13 Niger Case Study JEAN - PAUL VANDERLINDEN

The purpose of this chapter is to describe preliminary results in the attempt to model the linkages between property rights, risk, and livestock development in Niger. Rainfall variation is often identified as the major environmental risk faced by agropastoralists (for example, Swallow 1994). Among the many riskmanagement strategies that are identified, livestock mobility is seen as one of the most valuable by agropastoralists (for example, Fleuret 1986; Painter, Sumberg, and Price 1994; Swallow 1994; van den Brink, Bromley, and Chavas 1995). Sivakumar (1989) and Sivakumar, Maidoukia, and Stern (1993) show that one of the major climatic characteristics in Niger is rainfall variability and the recently increased frequency of droughts. In Niger, land tenure consists of a mix of quasi-private and common property, enabling both fixed agricultural production and mobile cattle raising. Nevertheless, the combination of population increase, low and variable rainfall, and a changing institutional environment creates stress on land-tenure systems. Since 1993, the Niger government has been implementing a new rural code that should redefine the access, use, and management of natural resources in Niger (Secrétariat Permanent 1993, 1997). This calls for a clear understanding of how environmental variability, and the use of land for agricultural and pastoral activities, must contribute to a definition or redefinition of land tenure in Niger. The purpose of the modeling exercise that is envisaged is therefore twofold: to contribute, using quantitative methods, to the common rangeland and mobility debate; and to contribute to a better understanding of the situation in Niger—a prerequisite for developing changes in the land-tenure system that benefits all users. This chapter includes a short review of the literature specific to Niger; a description of observations made in the study area; and a preliminary, reducedform econometric model, which is presented for discussion purposes.